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Runcorn, UK – May 2, 2025 – In a political earthquake that has stunned Westminster and shaken Labour’s northern heartlands, Reform UK has pulled off a dramatic upset in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, winning the seat by just six votes. The result, confirmed early Friday morning, marks a turning point for Nigel Farage’s party – and may signal the end of traditional two-party dominance in British politics.
Reform UK candidate Sarah Pochin, a former Conservative councillor and magistrate, secured 38.72% of the vote, narrowly edging out Labour’s candidate who polled 38.70%. The razor-thin margin overturned a 14,700-vote Labour majority from the 2024 general election – one of the largest swings in recent UK electoral history.
Key Election Results – Runcorn & Helsby By-Election (May 1, 2025)
| Party | Vote Share (%) | Change from 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 38.72% | +20.6 pp |
| Labour | 38.70% | –14.2 pp |
| Conservative | 7.2% | –8.8 pp |
| Green | 7.1% | +0.7 pp |
| Liberal Democrat | 2.9% | –2.2 pp |
| Turnout | 46.2% | –13.2 pp |
Reform’s Rise: From Fringe to Frontline
Reform UK’s victory is the latest proof that the party, once dismissed as a protest vote, is now a serious electoral threat to both Labour and the Conservatives. Since Nigel Farage’s return to frontline politics in late 2024, Reform has undergone a major transformation—building local branches, selecting vetted candidates, and executing a tightly organized ground campaign.
In Runcorn, Reform deployed a highly professional and well-funded strategy, including a campaign headquarters in the town centre, thousands of doorstep conversations, and reportedly more than £2 million spent on direct mail to voters. The local campaign targeted disaffected working-class voters, pensioners, and those angry about immigration, inflation, and welfare cuts.
Candidate Sarah Pochin brought credibility to the ticket. As a former Conservative and respected community figure, she was seen as a safe pair of hands – a sharp contrast to the more controversial candidates Reform fielded in the past.
What Changed in Runcorn and Helsby?
The Runcorn & Helsby seat, newly created in the 2023 boundary changes, covers a mix of post-industrial Runcorn and affluent commuter villages like Helsby and Frodsham. Labour had dominated this area in 2024 with a resounding win, but voter frustration appears to have reached a tipping point.
Key factors driving the shock result:
- Ageing Population: Over 20% of voters are pensioners – a demographic that Reform actively courted with promises on energy prices, welfare protection, and law and order.
- Cost of Living Crisis: Soaring bills, NHS wait times, and reduced welfare entitlements hit working-class families hard, fueling resentment against Labour just 10 months after their return to power.
- Immigration Concerns: Reform’s tough stance on illegal immigration and promises to “take back control of the borders” resonated in parts of the constituency, especially among socially conservative voters.
- Voter Turnout Collapse: Overall turnout dropped to just 46.2%, down from 59.4% in 2024. Reform’s supporters were more energized, while many traditional Labour voters appeared to stay home.
A Wake-Up Call for Labour
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer now faces uncomfortable questions. How could a “safe seat” be lost so soon after winning a national majority? While Labour performed well in mayoral elections elsewhere on the same day, Runcorn and Helsby reveals a soft underbelly among the working-class voters Labour once relied on.
The party’s cautious centrist message – focused on economic stability and incremental change – may not be cutting through in towns where people feel left behind. Voters expressed anger over energy prices, cuts to the winter fuel allowance, and immigration policy. On the doorstep, several told reporters: “Labour’s forgotten us.”
Labour insiders say the result must be a “wake-up call,” with some MPs urging a shift toward more direct economic support for pensioners and low-income voters.
Tory Collapse Adds to Farage’s Momentum
The Conservative vote collapsed to just 7.2%, down from 16% last year. This reflects a broader national pattern: disillusioned Tory voters are either abstaining or switching to Reform in droves. In some parts of the constituency, Reform is said to have outpolled Labour by more than 2-to-1 in postal votes.
The result adds fuel to speculation about a potential Tory-Reform pact, especially as the general election looms. But Labour has already weaponized such talk, accusing the Tories of “surrendering to extremism.”
The Media Reaction: Shock and Shift
Mainstream outlets like The Guardian and Sky News described the outcome as a “blow to Labour” and “a major political upset.” Headlines focused on the unprecedented 17-point swing and the narrow margin of victory. Political analysts noted that while polls had suggested a competitive race, few predicted Reform would actually win.
Meanwhile, Reform-friendly media outlets celebrated the victory as a historic breakthrough. Nigel Farage hailed the result as “a big moment in British politics,” declaring that Reform was now “the only real opposition.”
What This Means for the Next General Election
With this win, Reform UK now has five MPs in Parliament and is riding a wave of momentum. More importantly, the Runcorn and Helsby result proves that Reform can win in Labour territory, not just in Brexit-friendly Tory seats.
Expect Reform to pour resources into other “left behind” areas across the North and Midlands. Their strategy is clear: target constituencies with older voters, lower incomes, and high anti-immigration sentiment – where Labour may have grown complacent.
For Labour and the Conservatives, the message is equally clear: ignore Reform UK at your peril.
A Political Shock That Will Reverberate Nationwide
The Runcorn and Helsby by-election may have been a local contest, but its implications are national. Reform UK’s six-vote win has shattered Labour’s sense of electoral invincibility and exposed cracks in the party’s red wall.
This result marks a turning point. Reform UK is no longer just a protest party – it is now a formidable electoral force with a ground game, a message, and real results to back it up. As Farage’s party looks toward the general election, Britain’s political landscape may never look the same again.