Friedrich Merz Stumbles in First Bundestag Vote: What It Means for Germany’s Future

BERLIN, May 6, 2025 – In a stunning and unprecedented political upset, Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s conservative CDU/CSU alliance, failed to secure the absolute majority required in the Bundestag to be elected chancellor. Despite a seemingly strong coalition with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Merz fell short by just six votes, receiving 310 out of the 316 needed—throwing Germany’s leadership transition into temporary uncertainty.

The vote, conducted by secret ballot in the 630-member Bundestag, marks the first time since World War II that a designated chancellor has lost the first round of parliamentary confirmation. The outcome not only exposes deep fractures within the ruling coalition but also sends ripples through Germany’s financial markets and international diplomatic circles.

What Happened in the Bundestag?

Under Article 63 of Germany’s Basic Law, a chancellor candidate must win an absolute majority in the first round of voting. Friedrich Merz, 69, long seen as the successor to outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, was widely expected to pass this hurdle with ease. His coalition with the SPD controls 328 seats, more than the required 316.

But when the ballots were counted, Merz had garnered only 310 votes, sparking speculation about dissent within coalition ranks. The vote was conducted in secret, leaving the identity of defectors unknown and fuelling concerns of instability just as Merz was poised to take over the reins of Europe’s largest economy.

What Comes Next in the Chancellor Election Process?

According to Germany’s constitution, the Bundestag now has 14 days to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority. During this period, further rounds of voting can be held. If no candidate secures the required threshold by the end of the two weeks, a final vote will be conducted. In this last round, a relative majority will suffice—but it comes with a catch: the Federal President must either appoint the candidate with the most votes or dissolve the Bundestag, triggering fresh elections.

A second vote has already been scheduled for Friday. Should Merz fail again, Germany could face prolonged political limbo, potentially empowering far-right forces such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the largest opposition party.

Coalition Cracks and Internal Turmoil

The CDU/CSU and SPD had formally signed a 144-page coalition agreement titled “Responsibility for Germany” just one day before the vote. The agreement laid out an ambitious agenda for reviving the economy, strengthening the military, and reforming migration policy. The two parties have traditionally dominated German politics, and their alliance was seen as a stabilizing force after months of political paralysis.

However, Merz’s failure suggests either internal dissent within his own CDU/CSU bloc or disloyalty among SPD members—both possibilities that signal a potentially unstable governing future.

SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil swiftly denied any betrayal from his party, but the damage may already be done. Political analysts believe the narrow miss reflects more than just a miscount; it could indicate resistance to Merz’s leadership style or policy vision, even among supposed allies.

Market Jitters and International Concerns

Germany’s DAX stock index reacted swiftly to the news, dropping 1.8% on Tuesday morning. Investors fear that political uncertainty could delay much-needed economic reforms and infrastructure investment.

Internationally, the failed vote has raised eyebrows, especially in Washington. The Biden administration—already navigating strained transatlantic relations after Donald Trump’s recent comments questioning NATO’s future—expressed muted concern about the implications for European stability.

With key foreign policy and defense issues on the table, including Germany’s role in NATO and its response to growing authoritarian threats, the country’s inability to confirm a chancellor on schedule could weaken its influence on the global stage.

Merz: Business Titan, Political Novice

Friedrich Merz, a corporate lawyer and former BlackRock executive, has long been seen as a bridge between Germany’s business elite and traditional conservatism. But critics argue that while he possesses financial acumen, he lacks experience in executive governance—a weakness now under a harsh spotlight.

His promises to deliver “strong, well-planned and dependable governance” ring hollow following the failed vote. Merz has pledged to tackle irregular migration, reinvigorate the economy, and counter the far-right AfD. Yet, even before taking office, he’s struggling to unify his coalition and assert his authority.

The Rise of AfD and the Far-Right Threat

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), now designated a “right-wing extremist” party by Germany’s domestic intelligence service, capitalized on the parliamentary chaos. The party has launched legal action against its new classification and continues to grow in popularity, especially in eastern Germany.

Should Merz’s coalition unravel, the AfD stands to gain from public disillusionment with establishment parties. February’s snap election already saw the AfD take second place—a stark warning for Germany’s political mainstream.

A Crossroads for German Democracy

Friedrich Merz’s narrow failure is more than just a procedural hiccup—it’s a political earthquake. It underscores a deeper uncertainty about leadership, consensus, and the future direction of the country. With Germany playing a pivotal role in European and global affairs, the coming days will be critical.

If Merz secures the majority in Friday’s second vote, he may yet salvage his chancellorship and restore momentum to his coalition. If not, Germany could be headed toward another round of elections, government gridlock, and further destabilization.

One thing is clear: Germany’s new era is off to a shaky start.