Kibaki vs. Raila: A Timeline of Political Rivalry and National Impact

The political rivalry between Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga is one of the most defining narratives in Kenya’s post-independence political history. Their interactions, alliances, betrayals, and competitions shaped not just electoral outcomes but also the very structure of Kenya’s political institutions, governance, and national unity. This article outlines a comprehensive timeline of their political rivalry and examines its profound impact on the nation.

1. The Early Years: Allies Against the Status Quo (1991–1997)

1991: The Return of Multiparty Democracy

• Kenya reintroduced multiparty politics after years of KANU’s one-party rule under President Daniel arap Moi.
• Both Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga left KANU to join or form opposition parties.
  • Kibaki formed the Democratic Party (DP).
  • Raila joined his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga in Ford-Kenya.

1992 Elections

• Kibaki ran for president under DP and came third.
• Raila’s Ford-Kenya, led by his father, was also in the race but divided.
• This election marked the beginning of opposition fragmentation — a factor that would repeatedly work in favor of KANU.

1997 Elections

• Both Kibaki and Raila contested the presidency separately.
  • Kibaki again came in second.
  • Raila’s showing was modest but helped cement his growing influence.
• After the elections, Raila shocked the political scene by joining KANU in a move seen as pragmatic but opportunistic.

2. The Grand Alliance and Betrayal (2002–2005)

2002: The Rainbow Alliance and NARC Victory

• Raila led a mass exodus from KANU after being denied the presidential ticket.
• Joined forces with Kibaki, Michael Wamalwa, and others under the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC).
• Raila popularized the phrase “Kibaki Tosha!”, endorsing Kibaki for the presidency.

Impact: The unity of opposition finally defeated KANU after 39 years. Kibaki became president in a landslide victory. Raila’s support was pivotal.

2003–2005: Fallout over the MoU

• Raila expected to be appointed Prime Minister, based on a pre-election Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
• Kibaki did not honor the MoU, leading to a breakdown in trust.
• Raila and his allies were pushed to the political periphery.

2005: Constitutional Referendum

• Kibaki proposed a new constitution, which Raila and his allies opposed.
• The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was born from this “No” campaign.
• Raila led the Orange team to a resounding win against the government-backed “Banana” team.

Impact: This was the official split between Raila and Kibaki, turning them into bitter political rivals.

3. The 2007 Elections and the Post-Election Violence

2007 General Elections

• Raila contested under the ODM ticket.
• Kibaki sought re-election under Party of National Unity (PNU).
• The election was marred by:
  • Massive turnout.
  • A close contest.
  • Delayed results.
  • Allegations of rigging.

December 30, 2007

• Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) declared Kibaki the winner.
• He was hastily sworn in at State House amid protest.

January–February 2008: Post-Election Violence

• Widespread violence erupted across the country.
• Over 1,300 people killed and 600,000 displaced.
• Ethnic tensions reached catastrophic levels.

Impact: Kenya teetered on the brink of civil war.

4. The 2008 Power-Sharing Deal

February 2008: Kofi Annan’s Mediation

• International pressure mounted.
• Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan led peace negotiations.

March 2008: The National Accord

• Kibaki and Raila agreed to a power-sharing deal.
• Raila became Prime Minister, working alongside Kibaki in a coalition government.

Impact: Kenya avoided total collapse. However, governance was marked by mistrust, internal rivalry, and duplicity.

5. Coalition Government Years (2008–2013)

Coalition Achievements

• New Constitution (2010): The most important legacy of the Kibaki-Raila co-government.
• Vision 2030 rollout.
• Infrastructure growth: roads, energy, ICT.
• Rebuilding national institutions.

Tensions Within

• Continued mistrust between Kibaki’s PNU and Raila’s ODM.
• Frequent infighting over appointments, corruption scandals, and power dynamics.

Impact: Though functional, the coalition government was often called a “coalition of the unwilling.”

6. 2013 and Beyond: Legacy and Reflection

2013 General Elections

• Kibaki retired after two terms.
• Raila contested against Uhuru Kenyatta, Kibaki’s preferred successor.
• Raila lost amid claims of vote rigging.
• The Supreme Court upheld the results.

Kibaki’s Legacy: Infrastructure king, a man of few words but lasting economic reforms.

Raila’s Legacy (as of 2013): Perennial opposition figure, democratic reformer, and mobilizer.

7. National Impact of the Kibaki-Raila Rivalry

a) Institutional Reforms

• Rivalry accelerated demand for constitutional change.
• Led to a devolved system of government.
• Creation of independent institutions: IEBC, Judiciary reforms, Senate.

b) Ethnic Polarization

• Rivalry often took on ethnic dimensions.
  • Kibaki supported largely by Mount Kenya bloc.
  • Raila by Luo Nyanza, Western, and parts of Rift Valley.
• Created ethnic voting patterns that persist today.

c) Economic Transformation

• Under the coalition government, economic growth rebounded post-violence.
• Major investments in infrastructure and education.

d) Rise of Issue-Based Politics

• Despite ethnic undertones, rivalry introduced constitutionalism, transparency, and reform agendas into political discourse.

e) Peacebuilding and National Unity

• Power-sharing in 2008 prevented civil war.
• Later handshake politics (with Uhuru) drew from the Kibaki-Raila coalition template.

8. A Relationship That Reshaped a Nation

The Kibaki-Raila rivalry was more than just political theatre; it was a dynamic force that reshaped Kenya’s national identity, governance structures, and democratic space. From political allies to sworn rivals to reluctant partners in a coalition, their interactions reflected the pain and promise of Kenya’s democratic journey.

In their rivalry, Kenya suffered—through post-election violence, political betrayal, and institutional crises—but also grew stronger, with new institutions, a transformative constitution, and a more politically engaged citizenry.

Question to Reflect On

Do you think Kenya’s political landscape would be more stable today if the 2002 MoU between Kibaki and Raila had been honoured? Why or why not?

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