Understanding the 2022 Kenyan Elections: Have We Learned from the Past?

Every five years, Kenya finds itself at a crossroads, with its citizens lining up to cast ballots that not only decide the next government but also reflect the state of the nation’s democracy. Few countries in Africa have elections as closely watched, both at home and abroad, as Kenya. This is partly because Kenya’s elections have, in the past, been moments of both hope and crisis. From the devastating post‑election violence of 2007–08 to the Supreme Court’s annulment of the 2017 presidential results, Kenyan elections are as much about political competition as they are about the resilience of the nation’s democratic institutions.

The 2022 general elections, held on August 9, were widely seen as a litmus test of whether Kenya had learned from its tumultuous past. Would the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) be able to deliver a free, fair, and transparent poll? Would technology finally restore trust in the electoral process rather than erode it? Would the Supreme Court remain an impartial arbiter of disputes? And perhaps most importantly: would Kenyans themselves—leaders, voters, and institutions alike—choose peace over conflict?

This article seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis of the 2022 Kenyan elections, drawing lessons from the country’s electoral history, examining the role of technology, reviewing the Supreme Court’s pivotal decision, and reflecting on the participation of youth, women, and civil society. By asking whether Kenya has truly learned from the past, we hope to uncover the extent of progress made, the shortcomings that remain, and the steps needed before the country heads to the next general elections in 2027.

1. Kenya’s Electoral Journey: A Troubled History

To understand the significance of the 2022 elections, it is essential to revisit Kenya’s electoral journey, particularly the crises and reforms that have shaped public expectations.

2007–08: A National Tragedy

The 2007 general election remains one of the darkest chapters in Kenya’s post‑independence history. The presidential race between incumbent Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga was fiercely contested. When the Electoral Commission of Kenya declared Kibaki the winner, allegations of widespread vote rigging quickly surfaced. Protests erupted, and what began as political demonstrations spiraled into ethnic violence that engulfed large parts of the country.

According to the Commission of Inquiry into Post‑Election Violence (CIPEV), commonly referred to as the Waki Commission, more than 1,200 people were killed and about 600,000 were displaced in the ensuing chaos. Violence was often organized and targeted along ethnic lines, with entire communities attacked based on perceived political loyalties. The magnitude of the crisis shocked the world and led to international intervention. Former UN Secretary‑General Kofi Annan mediated a power‑sharing agreement that created the position of Prime Minister for Odinga and allowed Kibaki to remain President.

This tragic episode forced Kenya to confront the fragility of its democracy. It also created momentum for far‑reaching reforms, culminating in the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution, which introduced stronger checks and balances, devolution, and an independent judiciary.

2013: First Elections Under the 2010 Constitution

The 2013 general election was the first under the new constitutional order. It introduced new electoral structures, including the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), tasked with restoring credibility to Kenya’s elections. The race saw Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto—both facing charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC)—running against Raila Odinga once again.

The IEBC adopted new technology for voter registration and results transmission. Despite long queues, logistical hiccups, and concerns about the failure of electronic voter identification devices, the elections were largely peaceful compared to 2007. Uhuru Kenyatta was declared winner with 50.07% of the vote, barely avoiding a runoff. Odinga contested the results in the Supreme Court, which upheld Kenyatta’s victory.

While the absence of large‑scale violence was a relief, observers noted that the credibility of the IEBC remained fragile. The Carter Center, among other observers, highlighted issues with technology and tallying processes, warning that confidence in the IEBC could erode without significant reforms.

2017: The Nullification That Shook Africa

The 2017 general election was historic for Kenya and Africa at large. President Uhuru Kenyatta, seeking re‑election, faced Raila Odinga once again. The IEBC introduced the Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS) for biometric identification and electronic result transmission. However, the system suffered failures, and questions were raised about the integrity of transmitted results.

On August 8, 2017, Kenyatta was declared the winner with 54% of the vote. Odinga filed a petition at the Supreme Court, alleging manipulation of results and failure of electronic systems. In a landmark ruling, the Supreme Court annulled the election, citing “irregularities and illegalities” in the transmission of results. It ordered a fresh election within 60 days—the first time in Africa that a presidential election result was nullified.

The repeat election in October was boycotted by Odinga, handing Kenyatta an easy victory but leaving the nation deeply divided. The political stalemate was later resolved by the unexpected “handshake” between Kenyatta and Odinga in March 2018, which lowered tensions but raised new questions about elite power‑sharing.

These historical milestones set the stage for 2022. Kenyans entered the polls with high expectations but also deep scepticism, shaped by memories of both violence and disputed results.

2. The 2022 Elections in Context

The August 2022 elections were Kenya’s third general elections under the 2010 Constitution and were widely seen as one of the most consequential in recent history. They took place against a backdrop of economic hardship, a global pandemic hangover, and shifting political alliances that had upended traditional voting blocs. More than 22 million registered voters were expected to choose leaders across six positions: President, Members of Parliament, Senators, Governors, Women Representatives, and Members of County Assemblies.

The Main Contenders

The presidential race was primarily a contest between two political heavyweights:

• William Ruto: Then Deputy President, running under the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) within the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Branding himself as the champion of the “Hustler Nation,” Ruto portrayed himself as the candidate of the poor and marginalized, contrasting his humble beginnings with what he called the entitlement of the political dynasties.
• Raila Odinga: The veteran opposition leader, now running on the Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Alliance, supported by outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta. This was Odinga’s fifth attempt at the presidency, and his campaign focused on national unity, social welfare programs, and the continuation of Kenyatta’s infrastructure legacy.

Other candidates included George Wajackoyah of the Roots Party, whose quirky proposals—such as legalizing marijuana for export—sparked social media debates, and David Mwaure Waihiga of the Agano Party, who promised a corruption‑free government. However, the race was always expected to come down to Ruto and Odinga.

The Legacy of the Handshake and the Collapse of BBI

The 2018 Handshake between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga was intended to heal the deep divisions left by the disputed 2017 elections. It ushered in a period of relative calm and led to the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), a proposed constitutional amendment package that promised inclusivity, expanded executive positions, and reforms aimed at addressing ethnic antagonism.

However, BBI faced fierce opposition from William Ruto, who claimed it was an elite pact designed to sideline ordinary citizens. In 2021, Kenya’s High Court and later the Supreme Court declared BBI unconstitutional, halting the amendments and handing Ruto a significant political victory. The collapse of BBI left Kenya heading into 2022 with unresolved questions about inclusivity and the balance of power at the executive level.

The IEBC Under Scrutiny

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, chaired by Wafula Chebukati, entered the 2022 election under immense pressure. The commission had faced criticism for its handling of the 2013 and 2017 polls, with both elections leaving lingering doubts about credibility.

For 2022, the IEBC adopted a strategy centered on technology, transparency, and early preparation. It rolled out the Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS) for voter verification, promised to upload all Form 34A results onto a public online portal, and conducted extensive training of election officials. Despite these efforts, the IEBC struggled with public trust, as demonstrated by opinion polls showing a large section of Kenyans doubted its neutrality.

Campaign Climate and Key Issues

The campaigns were intense but generally peaceful. Ruto’s “Hustler vs. Dynasty” narrative gained traction, especially among younger and economically disenfranchised voters who resonated with his message of economic empowerment. Odinga’s campaign, backed by the state machinery, emphasized stability, infrastructure, and welfare initiatives such as the proposed social protection fund for vulnerable families.

Key issues dominating the campaigns included:

• The economy: Rising cost of living, high youth unemployment, and ballooning public debt.
• Corruption: Both camps accused each other of graft while promising anti‑corruption reforms.
• Inclusivity and governance: The failure of BBI reignited debates on whether the political system adequately represented Kenya’s ethnic and social diversity.
• Technology and transparency: Citizens wanted assurance that the electronic systems would not repeat the failures of 2013 and 2017.

Election Day Challenges

On August 9, Kenyans turned out in large numbers. According to the IEBC, voter turnout stood at 65.4%, a drop from the 78% recorded in 2017. Analysts attributed the decline to voter apathy, especially among the youth, and disillusionment with political elites.

The voting process was largely peaceful and orderly, though not without challenges:

• KIEMS Kit Failures: In some polling stations, KIEMS kits failed to function properly, forcing IEBC officials to resort to manual voter registers. While this prevented disenfranchisement, it revived suspicions of possible manipulation.
• Suspended Elections: In Mombasa and Kakamega counties, as well as a few constituencies, elections were postponed due to ballot paper errors and the deaths of candidates. These were rescheduled for later in August.
• Long Queues and Delays: Some polling stations reported late openings and inadequate staff, leading to frustrations among voters.
• Disinformation Online: Social media platforms were flooded with fake results, doctored images, and misleading reports aimed at influencing perceptions.

Despite these issues, the day ended without major incidents of violence, a remarkable achievement given Kenya’s troubled electoral history.

3. Technology and Transparency

One of the defining features of Kenya’s 2022 elections was the use of technology. After the controversies surrounding electronic systems in 2013 and 2017, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) staked much of its credibility on digital innovation, vowing to deliver a transparent and verifiable poll. While technology improved accountability in significant ways, it also introduced fresh challenges, particularly in the realm of misinformation.

The Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS)

At the heart of the IEBC’s technological approach was the Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS). These were tablets designed to:

• Biometrically verify voters through fingerprints and facial recognition,
• Provide access to the electronic voter register, and
• Electronically transmit scanned results (Form 34A) from polling stations to the national tallying center.

According to the Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) election observation report, most KIEMS kits functioned properly and clerks demonstrated competence in operating them. Where connectivity was poor, kits stored results offline until they could be uploaded. In stations where fingerprint verification failed, officials used alphanumeric searches or facial recognition to confirm voter identity. This flexibility helped minimize disenfranchisement.

However, not all went smoothly. Some KIEMS kits failed completely, forcing the IEBC to revert to manual registers. Critics argued that while this preserved voting rights, it reopened avenues for irregularities, given that manual registers had been at the center of past manipulation claims.

The Online Results Portal: A Transparency Milestone

Perhaps the most transformative innovation in 2022 was the IEBC’s decision to make all 46,299 polling station results (Form 34A) publicly accessible through an online portal. This transparency measure meant that anyone—including journalists, civil society organizations, and ordinary citizens—could download, review, and tally results directly.

The move dramatically increased confidence in the process. Media houses conducted their own independent tallies, and civil society watchdogs such as Election Observation Group (ELOG) cross‑verified results against the IEBC’s official count. As noted by an analysis published in the Journal of Eastern African Studies (2024), the results portal represented “a landmark step toward electoral accountability in Kenya.”

This openness made it significantly harder for either camp to manipulate the tallying process behind closed doors, a problem that had marred the 2007 and 2017 elections.

The Battle Against Digital Disinformation

Yet even as transparency improved, the digital battlefield presented new risks. The European Union Election Observation Mission (EU‑EOM) reported widespread online disinformation campaigns during the 2022 elections. These included:

• Doctored news headlines and screenshots designed to suggest certain candidates had won before official announcements.
• Fake Twitter and Facebook accounts, often using names of reputable media houses, spreading unverified results.
• Paid influencers and bots, sometimes referred to as “puppets for hire,” who amplified misleading content across TikTok, WhatsApp, and Twitter.
• Targeted misinformation campaigns questioning the independence of IEBC and the integrity of the KIEMS kits.

These disinformation efforts were not only aimed at influencing voter perceptions but also at undermining trust in the IEBC and the broader electoral process.

Despite attempts by platforms like Facebook and Twitter to flag or remove false content, much of the disinformation spread faster than fact‑checking initiatives could respond. Civil society groups like KICTANet and Article 19 East Africa tried to counter the narratives, but the scale of the problem highlighted how digital platforms had become both vital and vulnerable in Kenya’s electoral process.

Balancing Transparency with Security

The IEBC’s use of technology underscored a delicate balance between transparency and security. While publishing results online improved accountability, it also exposed sensitive data to potential manipulation. Concerns were raised about the safety of servers, especially after allegations in 2017 that the IEBC’s systems had been hacked.

In 2022, the IEBC reported no successful breaches, and the Supreme Court confirmed that the system had been secure. However, cybersecurity experts warned that the sheer dependence on technology required robust safeguards, independent audits, and continuous improvement to prevent future vulnerabilities.

4. Peace, Security, and the Voter Experience

Kenya’s elections have long been synonymous with tension. The specter of the 2007–08 post‑election violence still haunts the national psyche, reminding citizens and leaders alike of the heavy cost of political disputes. Against this backdrop, the 2022 elections were remarkable not only for their technological innovations but also for their relative calm. While imperfections persisted, the experience of voters, the conduct of security forces, and the mobilization of civil society suggested that Kenya had taken tangible steps toward peaceful democratic practice.

A New Atmosphere: From Fear to Relative Calm

For many Kenyans, the approach of a general election historically triggered fear rather than anticipation. The threat of ethnic clashes, displacement, or even loss of life was a grim reality. However, in 2022, the general mood was noticeably different. There were isolated incidents of irregularities and confrontations, but the large‑scale violence of 2007 did not repeat itself.

The East African Community (EAC) Election Observer Mission, led by former Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, reported that election day was “largely peaceful, orderly, and conducted in accordance with the legal framework.” Similar sentiments were echoed by the NDI/IRI Observer Mission, which commended Kenyan citizens for their patience and discipline at polling stations.

This atmosphere was no accident. It was the result of deliberate efforts by the government, civil society, faith groups, and international partners to prioritize peace and prevent a repeat of past bloodshed.

Security Deployment and Police Reforms

The Kenyan government deployed thousands of security officers across the country in anticipation of potential unrest. Unlike in 2007, when security forces were accused of excessive force and even complicity in violence, the 2022 deployment was more measured and professional.

The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR), in its Final Elections Monitoring Report, observed that the police had adopted a more restrained approach compared to previous years. While there were reports of isolated incidents—including obstruction of journalists in Kericho and Kakamega—no systematic use of violence against civilians was documented.

This improvement reflected years of police reforms and the establishment of the Independent Policing Oversight Authority (IPOA), which was tasked with ensuring accountability in law enforcement.

The Role of Civil Society and Faith‑Based Organizations

Civil society and religious leaders played a critical role in shaping the peaceful environment of the 2022 elections. Organizations such as the Election Observation Group (ELOG), Inter-Religious Council of Kenya (IRCK), and grassroots peace initiatives conducted voter education campaigns and promoted messages of tolerance.

Religious leaders frequently reminded Kenyans that elections should be about leadership choice, not life‑and‑death struggles. Community dialogues in hotspots like Rift Valley, Kisumu, and Nairobi slums helped defuse potential flashpoints.

The messaging was reinforced by media campaigns using radio, television, and social media to stress non‑violence. International partners, including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), also funded civic education initiatives that encouraged peaceful participation.

Irregularities and Shortcomings

Despite the largely peaceful atmosphere, the elections were not without flaws. The KNCHR documented several irregularities:

• 28 cases of misconduct by IEBC officials, ranging from mishandling of ballot papers to inadequate communication.
• 45 polling stations where results were not publicly displayed as required by law, raising transparency concerns.
• 22 incidents of property destruction reported in areas such as Nairobi, Siaya, Murang’a, Trans Nzoia, and Isiolo.
• Instances where journalists faced obstruction while attempting to report results.

While these irregularities did not escalate into widespread violence, they highlighted persistent weaknesses in electoral management and the need for stricter accountability measures.

Voter Experience: Hope Mixed with Frustration

For the average Kenyan voter, the 2022 elections were a mixture of optimism and frustration. Many appreciated the efficiency of the KIEMS kits in verifying their identities and the calm atmosphere at polling stations. At the same time, long queues, delays in opening some stations, and reports of missing or incorrect ballot papers tested their patience.

Voter turnout, at 65.4%, was lower than in 2017, reflecting lingering apathy and disillusionment. Youth, in particular, expressed disappointment at a political system they felt remained dominated by the same elite families and networks, despite promises of change.

Nevertheless, for millions of Kenyans, the ability to cast their vote without fear of violence marked a significant step forward. The peaceful nature of the day allowed many to begin trusting, however cautiously, that elections in Kenya could be different.

5. The Supreme Court and Dispute Resolution

In Kenya, the Supreme Court has increasingly become the ultimate referee in electoral contests. Since its establishment under the 2010 Constitution, the Court has played a pivotal role in determining the legitimacy of presidential elections. The 2022 elections reinforced this role, with the Court once again placed at the center of national attention after the highly contested results were announced.

Announcement of Results and Immediate Fallout

On August 15, 2022, after nearly a week of tallying, IEBC Chairperson Wafula Chebukati declared William Ruto the winner of the presidential election with 50.49% of the vote, narrowly defeating Raila Odinga, who garnered 48.85%. The margin of just over 233,000 votes underscored the closeness of the contest.

The announcement was dramatic. Four of the seven IEBC commissioners—Vice Chairperson Juliana Cherera, and commissioners Justus Nyang’aya, Francis Wanderi, and Irene Masit—stormed out of the tallying center at Bomas of Kenya, alleging that the final tallying process had been opaque. Their dissent cast immediate doubt on the results and set the stage for a legal battle.

Raila Odinga and his running mate Martha Karua rejected the results outright, calling them “null and void,” and filed a petition at the Supreme Court challenging Ruto’s victory.

Grounds of Raila Odinga’s Petition

The Odinga legal team raised several key arguments in their petition, as documented by the Supreme Court of Kenya Presidential Petition Judgment (Petition No. E005 of 2022):

1. Illegality in the Tallying Process
   • They argued that the final results announced by Chebukati were not verified and approved by a majority of IEBC commissioners, violating Article 138 of the Constitution.
2. Alleged Hacking and Manipulation of Results
   • They claimed that the IEBC’s servers had been infiltrated and that results were tampered with in favor of Ruto.
3. Questioning of KIEMS Kit Functionality
   • The petition alleged that failures in the KIEMS system allowed for ghost voting and manipulation.
4. Discrepancies in Forms 34A and 34B
   • Odinga’s team pointed to alleged mismatches between results on physical forms and those uploaded to the IEBC portal.
5. Dissent by IEBC Commissioners
   • The four commissioners’ rejection of the results was cited as evidence that the results lacked institutional legitimacy.
6. Failure to Achieve 50% + 1 Threshold
   • They argued that when spoilt votes were properly considered, Ruto had not crossed the constitutional threshold required for victory.

The Court’s Historic Ruling

On September 5, 2022, a seven‑judge bench of the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Martha Koome, delivered its judgment. The Court unanimously upheld William Ruto’s victory, dismissing Odinga’s petition.

The Court’s key findings included:

• On Illegality in Tallying: The Court ruled that the Constitution only required the IEBC Chairperson to declare the winner, even if commissioners dissented. The split did not invalidate the process.
• On Hacking Allegations: No credible evidence was presented to prove that the IEBC systems had been hacked or that results were altered.
• On KIEMS Failures: While acknowledging technical failures in some polling stations, the Court held that these did not materially affect the outcome of the election.
• On Discrepancies in Forms: The Court’s independent audit of Forms 34A, 34B, and 34C confirmed that the results tallied matched those declared by the IEBC.
• On Spoilt Votes and Threshold: The Court clarified that spoilt votes should not count toward the 50% + 1 threshold, a consistent interpretation from past rulings.
• On Commissioners’ Dissent: The Court ruled that internal disagreements within the IEBC could not nullify an otherwise constitutional process.

Implications of the Ruling

The Court’s ruling had several far‑reaching implications:

• Strengthening Judicial Authority: The decision reaffirmed the Supreme Court as the final arbiter of electoral disputes. Both Ruto and Odinga accepted the verdict, cementing the judiciary’s role in averting violence.
• IEBC Credibility: Although the Court upheld the results, the dissent by four commissioners exposed deep divisions within the IEBC. Many Kenyans called for a thorough review of the commission to prevent a similar crisis in future elections.
• Public Trust in Institutions: While the ruling prevented unrest, opinion polls indicated that many Odinga supporters remained unconvinced, underscoring the challenge of building public confidence in electoral institutions.
• Legal Precedents: The judgment provided clarity on key constitutional questions, especially the treatment of spoilt votes and the powers of the IEBC Chairperson.

International Reactions

International observer missions welcomed the Supreme Court ruling. The European Union Election Observation Mission stated that the ruling “reinforced the rule of law and demonstrated Kenya’s institutional resilience.” The African Union praised the peaceful acceptance of the verdict, noting that it set a positive precedent for the continent.

However, civil society groups such as the Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) cautioned that the ruling should not obscure the need for electoral reforms, especially given the IEBC’s internal divisions and persistent issues with voter trust.

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